Like A Bos — Beyond The Sale

2025 And What Comes Next | with David Fleming | Broker of Record at Toronto Realty Group

• Bosley Real Estate Ltd., Brokerage • Season 1 • Episode 8

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This episode cuts through the noise to reveal what happened in the market this past year, what mattered, what didn’t, and what most people got wrong. With David Fleming’s unfiltered perspective, we break down the key shifts, surprises, and signals shaping both buyers and sellers.

Our goal is to give listeners clear, honest insight into where the market stands now and what to watch for next, so they can move forward with confidence (and a little humour).

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Christan Bosley:

Well, folks, headlines said one thing, and the market definitely told a different story. Today we are joined by someone who never sugarcoats it: Mr. David Fleming, broker of record with Bosley Toronto Realty Group. If you want the truth behind the 2025 headlines and what's in store for 2026, this is definitely the episode for you. For nearly a century, Bosley has been helping to shape the landscape of Canadian Real Estate. This podcast is an extension of that legacy, our way of staying connected to what matters most to you. Join us as we sit down with leading voices from across the industry and beyond to explore the ideas, trends, and stories that move real estate forward. Whether you're an agent, investor, homeowner, or just curious about the market, there's something here for you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Like a Bos, the podcast where we bring you real conversations with people shaping the real estate industry. I'm your host, Christan Bosley, president and broker of record of Bosley Real Estate.

David Fleming:

David. Yes. Welcome to Like a Bos . I can't believe you're doing a podcast. I'm very interested to know why you added that to your already busy plate.

Christan Bosley:

Me too.

David Fleming:

Yeah.

Christan Bosley:

Yeah. But hey, listen, we're thrilled to have you here. Thank you so much for joining us.

David Fleming:

Yeah, sure.

Christan Bosley:

Uh you, for those of you that don't know, are known for your honesty and willingness to say the things that people won't say.

David Fleming:

Oh boy, you're putting me on the spot here.

Christan Bosley:

Yes. Well, and of course, your witty knowledge as it comes to stats and market trends.

David Fleming:

Uh-huh. Okay.

Christan Bosley:

So uh listen, I've been privileged to work with you for what, like 21 years?

David Fleming:

I can't believe you just put a number to it.

Christan Bosley:

I did. Yes.

David Fleming:

Uh it's gone by very, very quickly. Yeah. It started in 2004. I cannot believe I'm in my 22nd year, as they say. There are people that are that old.

Christan Bosley:

There are. Yeah.

David Fleming:

That's wild. Yes.

Christan Bosley:

That's wild. But in that tenure with the company, you're going on a decade at number one. So congratulations. Thank you.

David Fleming:

Appreciate that.

Christan Bosley:

It's very exciting.

David Fleming:

Yeah, absolutely.

Christan Bosley:

Uh anything else you wish to say to introduce yourself to our audience?

David Fleming:

Oh, now I'm really been put on the spot. You just said that I'm honest and transparent. Uh no, I am here just to answer your questions, provide some uh insight and knowledge if I have any. I think you're gonna hit me up for stats. That's kind of you've pigeonholed me as this stats person/slash nerd, uh, for lack of a better term. Yes, I'm happy, happy to get into some statistics if you would like.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. Well, we're we're gonna hold on that for a little bit. Okay. Start with something a little fun.

David Fleming:

Oh, I like fun. Fun's the funnest. Yeah.

Christan Bosley:

Amazing. Hey, listen. If 2025, if the market in 2025 were a character in a movie or a television show, which of course you also like to reference regularly.

David Fleming:

Yes, I do.

Christan Bosley:

Who would it be and what would its personality be like?

David Fleming:

I mean, based on my personality here, I feel like I have to go with something from the 80s. I'm thinking a character from Growing Pains, you know, like a Mike Seaver or like a like a Tony Danza from Who's the Boss? But um honestly, I'm going to Saturday Night Live's Debbie Downer, played by Rachel Dratch. I don't know why I have that in my head. Uh, it just kind of felt like this year, the media was so incredibly negative. It just, I just this won't won't, like that Debbie Downer character. And listen, it was a tough year for real estate, but we were on a 20-year bull run. Something was bound to happen. We've had three sort of down years. And yeah, if I had to think of a character, it it was a total Debbie Downer year. It was just everywhere in the media, negativity. There was nothing positive. I mean, listen, we can get into the numbers afterwards and we can talk about exactly what that looked like. But uh, that's a good opening question. I like that.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. Here I was thinking we were gonna talk about 90210.

David Fleming:

Oh, yes, yes. It was a very Brandon Walsh type of year, Brandon and Brenda. Yeah. Can you name their parents on the show?

Christan Bosley:

Ooh, you put me on the spot the other day. I remember Dylan, but no.

David Fleming:

Jim and Cindy, Jim and Cindy Walsh. See, you now now I really am the nerd that uh these aren't really statistics, these are fun facts from the 80s and 90s. But yeah, that's a good question. I like that.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. So if we're gonna go back to your Debbie Danner comment, of course we know that the media likes to sensationalize a little bit. Yeah. There's no question that the market has declined. Um, would you say that your experience of the market in 2025 was reflective and on par with the media?

David Fleming:

No, I think that the media always exacerbates the market. So when the things were red hot, the media could not get enough of it. And you remember Toronto Life writing articles about bidding wars and people bribing the sellers with, you know, leaf tickets and that sort of thing. And now when the market's down, they're exacerbating that as well. So I think there's always going to be hyperbole. And but you know, if it bleeds, it leads, right? That's what the media does.

Christan Bosley:

That's a great line.

David Fleming:

Yeah, I didn't invent that one. No. No.

Christan Bosley:

No.

David Fleming:

It's a longtime media line.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. All right, great. Well, listen, which segments saw the biggest shifts in Toronto, Southern Ontario or even across the country? Because I know you track it all.

David Fleming:

Uh I wrote a blog in the fall where I looked at, and this was September to September data, the Korea Home Price Index, which is a really cool tool, and they track almost all the provinces. For some reason, they they don't track uh two of them, but they track 54 cities. And what I noticed was that Ontario was the hardest hit across the country. So Ontario and BC for the most part are down year over year. But what was fascinating is that everything in Quebec is up, everything in the uh out east is up, and everything out west, save for I believe it was Calgary, is up. And then you look at Ontario, where I think they tracked 23 or 24 different cities, and 17 of them were down. So I think geographically, what was hardest hit were the Oakville, Burlington, Mississaugas. Um, in terms of the particular segments, I think the condo market, there's been a lot of media coverage about that. And of course, we have to divide this into pre-construction or new homes, as they say, and then resale. Both have been hammered, but there is a non-existent pre-construction market out there right now. So listen, I've never sold a pre-con in 21 and a half years in the business for many reasons, which we don't need to get into today. But that House of Cards was going to fall, and it did in 2025. So that's probably the biggest story, and that's the biggest segment to answer your question.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. So we're not going to get into a conversation about your genes pre-construction video.

David Fleming:

Oh, yeah. No, that was uh 2015, I believe. I was trying to make a point to people that just didn't get it why the pre-construction industry doesn't make any sense. And yes, I use the analogy of genes. Sometimes to prove a point, you have to go to the lowest common denominator. I also did a video years ago where I compare compared cake and cake mix. And basically the analogy was a resale condo and one that you had to bake yourself. And why in the world would you pay more for cake mix than for a fully baked cake? And yet people continue to buy pre-construction, and the house of cards eventually did fall.

Christan Bosley:

Interesting. Yeah. Interesting. Okay. Well, I mean, I think buyers are a big part of that house of cards. Were there any particular buyer segments that you saw shut out of the market in 2025?

David Fleming:

Yeah, I think the entry-level buyer for condos is just scared stiff. And so what I find fascinating about the market, and I want to sound salesy, but it's a great time to buy a resale condo. If you're a young person and you can go and buy a condo for $500,000 that was selling for $650 at the inflated peak of 2022, it's found money. All markets recover. They always have, they will. But that buyer is so afraid of that condo dropping to $490 or $485. And, you know, maybe I don't blame them. It's hard to buy in a down market, but I think that part of the market was you use the word shut out. I think they're just scared stiff. But I think who's shut out is the move up buyer. I think the people that own condos and they're worth, you know, what they paid or less, they can't make that move, either financially or just psychologically. So I think the move up buyers for the most part that are coming from entry level were shut out last year.

Christan Bosley:

Yeah, I would absolutely agree. Interestingly, though, there is a segment of move up buyers that have moved forward with their move as a result of life circumstances, babies, marriage, death, you name it. Um where are they winning right now in the market?

David Fleming:

Well, if you buy and sell in the same market, you can't get hurt. That's what we always say. If you move up, theoretically, you're moving ahead. So say that you own a house that's worth one five and you're buying a house that's worth three million. Now, if you were to assume all things equal, that that was a 3.3 house, you know, 10%, and that yours was a 165 house, you're moving up. You're you're doubling the amount that you're gaining once you purchase. So I think those folks, and I had a lot of those folks last year, I think I had five or six people in that sort of 2.8 to 3.5. That's a big move. Now, not everyone's doubling in price. You know, you might sell for 1.8 and buy for 2.4, right? It depends on the geography, depends on, as you mentioned, life circumstance. But what I found is, you know, and geographically will explain like a lot of people that are living in these semis on the east side, or say in the, you know, the Ronsies and the West Side, and then they're moving up to the forever house, as I call it, those folks crushed it last year because I think that they were able to get into that asset class that it wasn't hit nearly as hard as their semis, right? So it might, you know, be counterintuitive to the example and the number I just gave you. But I would say that in a busier market, there's way, way more people for those move up homes. And even still, you know, in Leaside, where we're located, those things are still moving. The builder houses kind of sit, but those resale homes, there are buyers for that. And we found last year a lot of those folks were taking the time in 2025 to make that move.

Christan Bosley:

Yeah. It's the homes that have some character that are moving, that are fully finished and ready to go.

David Fleming:

Yep.

Christan Bosley:

So, but to your point about buying and selling in the same market, these are people who are moving up in the freehold segment. Yeah. Or moving up in the condo segment, right? It's not necessarily people moving up from condo to freehold.

David Fleming:

No, I think the people that are in condos, a lot of them, and we've had clients that have just said, I'm gonna stick it out. Like there's the financials behind it, and then there's the psychology behind it. And there's so much fear in the market, and we touched on this with you know media sentiment. But there's also, to me, that proverbial water cooler talk. I think everyone loves to talk about real estate. For as long as I've been in the business, I've always said Toronto is about two things it's about the leaves and it's about real estate. You cannot go anywhere and not expect to talk real estate. And so when people are buying, everyone wants to talk about it. But misery loves company too. And in a tough market, I feel like that young kid that wants to make a move up that's, you know, sitting in their cubicle. Now I'm really typecasting. I think, yeah, everyone's got an opinion.

Christan Bosley:

Right.

David Fleming:

And those opinions, for the most part, are going to be incredibly negative because we had a year where everything was about Trump and tariffs and the economy and recessionary talk. We had an election. What's happening with the Bank of Canada, interest rates? My God, there was so much to discuss. And everyone wanted to discuss it. So I think a lot of folks are just paralyzed, and that's a reason why maybe they're not making the move, even if life cycle would dictate they should or finances would dictate that they can.

Christan Bosley:

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Also explains why nobody's talking about the leaves anymore, right?

David Fleming:

Well, that and they kind of suck.

Christan Bosley:

But I'm surprised to hear you say we're about leaves in real estate.

David Fleming:

Why should you say we were, we were up until a few years ago. It's it's listen, I checked out on that a few years ago. I was a diehard when I was in early 20s, but I I can't I can't do it anymore.

Christan Bosley:

They're just I'm so sorry. Yeah. No, it's okay. Yeah.

David Fleming:

But those Js, though, wow.

Christan Bosley:

Right. Almost had it. Also disappointing. Yeah.

David Fleming:

Would have been great for the city.

Christan Bosley:

So talking about buyer psychology, you touched on it briefly. Yep. We did see a number of interest rate cuts this year. I think the expectation in the industry was that those interest rate cuts would continue to spur buyer activity. Do you feel that we've seen that?

David Fleming:

No. And I can admit when I'm wrong. In fact, I'd love to. You'd probably tell me otherwise. But I thought in mid-2024, people would get out ahead of rate cuts. This is the way markets have always worked historically, is that the smart money gets out ahead of the rate cuts because rate cuts increase affordability, they increase consumer confidence, they increase market demand. And then, of course, that increases prices. So sitting here in the mid-2024, I'm saying, wow, this market's going to pop in the fall. And it did not. Then we're coming into early 2025, and I'm saying this market's going to pop. Smart money gets out ahead of rate cuts. And easy for me to say now, with the benefit of hindsight, but I think it would have happened if not for the Trump and the tariffs. That scared everybody. And I felt the upward trajectory, and then everything just stopped. So I think to go from a Bank of Canada policy rate of 5% all the way down to 2.25 now, like you don't need a mortgage calculator to tell you. You can just look at those numbers. Increased affordability across the board. And prices have not moved. That is an incredible opportunity for buyers. So I was wrong. I thought a year and a half ago we would start to see some movement in the market. So do I double down now and say that in February of 2026, we will have been four years since the peak, the statistical peak in the market. Four years is a long time. I think that it's going to turn around. I think there's just way too much affordability in the market and there's appetite. But it's like anything else, the snowball rolling down a hill. I think once people get started, others are going to follow.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. So I think it's fair to say that you and I have a lot of conversations about real estate. Oh, yeah. You typically tend to speak a lot to clients. I speak a lot to agents. In my experience, when I speak to people who are not in the business, they typically have a really laser focus on something that they believe really matters in the business that actually doesn't matter to the transaction or to the overall holistic view of buying a property. In your experience with your clients, do you have that one thing that people really gravitate towards that at the end of the day isn't that significant?

David Fleming:

Yeah. I mean, I you mentioned buyers. So I guess what I would say last year across the board, both buyers and sellers, what was overstated was sort of to be really blunt, was their possession in the market. And what I mean by that is buyers, they thought they were absolute gods. They thought they could do anything, they could offer anything. And this goes back to that whole idea that I have when I said the media exacerbates everything. So too do buyers and sellers. So buyers, it's a buyer's market. Totally agree, but not to the extent that they necessarily thought it was. Buyers were just doing crazy things and, you know, we're getting emails from clients saying the sellers have to realize and here's the thing. And you can always make your own argument. Now, on the flip side, the sellers, I mean, they were sitting back and saying, this is Toronto. I've got a house, it's a seller's market. They were not exactly correct on that. So I think that both buyers and sellers really thought, to be blunt, their opinion mattered more than market statistics and market dynamics. And last year that just wasn't the case.

Christan Bosley:

So for me, um, a lot of what I hear comes down to buyers thinking that the market has not yet bottomed out. And it's interesting because from my position, we have a significant number of agents. I'm privy to a lot of details about deals that have either come to fruition or not. The stat right now is kind of astounding about buyers who are literally walking away in the middle of a negotiation to go and offer on another property because they're not happy with the way the seller has interacted or engaged. Most of that reasoning comes down to them feeling like they're not getting a deal or the market hasn't bottomed out. So how do you typically deal with that mindset?

David Fleming:

Okay, so here's another saying, and I seem to be full of them today. It's better to overpay for a property you love than to underpay for a property you like. And honestly, it sounds salesy, but at the end of the day, if you could maybe get, you know, a half a percent more on a particular property versus the one that's perfect, like, you know, this is not just a pure investment play. And so if you're dealing in stocks or bonds or mutual funds or gold coins or whatever it is, that's strictly an asset. And most of those, you know, gold bouillon aside, they're imaginary, right? They exist in an account. You live in your home. So not to make an argument for, you know, jumping in and buying right now, but what I'm saying is that if your life cycle suggests that now is the perfect time and you think, yeah, maybe I could wait another three months, the perfect property is right there. Look, I could give you some numbers and they might sound terrible because, you know, we're a little bit older. But like I remember my second condo, I think I paid $650,000 and I got it by like two grand. And I remember my dad, who, you know, we're all of the opinion, oh, our parents don't know anything. My dad said to me, Boy, that was really dumb leaving it to chance like that. And I thought, well, what do you know? Well, okay, listen, I lived there for seven years. It shaped the entire trajectory of my life. I brought my first child home to that condo. If I paid another 10 grand for it, who cares? Because I'm not gonna say what I ended up selling it for. But suffice it to say, the market appreciated a lot in that time period. So I think for buyers out there right now, yeah, you could flip a coin and say whether or not you're gonna be able to get a better deal in three to four months. But if you find the perfect property, go for it. You're gonna be there for 10 years. It's not gonna matter whether you paid a million one or a million ninety-five.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. And is that how you're dealing with the buyers who say things like 2025 is gonna be the big market crash that we've all been expecting? Because of course the media has fed into that mindset too. So is that how you're handling that?

David Fleming:

Let me give you another anecdote here. Um, Tara, who works on my team, we did a buyer seminar not too long ago, and I had a chart of the average home price from I think it was 1970 to current. And somebody in the audience put their hand up and they said, Where's the crash of 08? I said, It's there. And he said, What do you mean? Now, this is a younger person who's only read about the crash of 08. What was interesting about this is that on this chart, you can't even see the quote unquote crash of 08. Prices dropped about 12% in three months, but prices have tripled since then. So you don't see it on a 50-year chart. And so this is to say that at the end of the day, the big crash, I got on the business in 2004. People said, oh, it's a weird time to get in the business. The market's about to crash. What is a crash? A crash is a drop of 50%. It's never going to happen, it never has. When the market has corrected or adjusted from 10 to 20%, it's always come back. So the things could get potentially worse in 2026, but by how much? A percent? 3%? 4%? Sure, it's possible. I don't think it's probable. I do think we've bottomed out. I mean, I've gone on record, and I said I bought two condos in 2024. I bought one in 2025. The market's bottomed out. And that's in the worst condo market of all time. You'd be crazy to do that. Well, fortune favors the bold, and I think for buyers out there, people like to buy on the way back up when it's comfortable. But you know what? They pay a lot more for it. So you might have to grit your teeth and take a bit of a risk. But I assure people out there it's gonna be worthwhile.

Christan Bosley:

Couldn't agree more. So um, I'm sorry, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the fact that you're putting me in the same age category as you. But uh, as I, you know, rework my brain. I'm gonna go back to the bank of mom and dad, okay, which I think in our experience has powered quite a few transactions in the city in particular. So um are we seeing parents continue to do that or are they kind of running, running out of equity in their homes at this point?

David Fleming:

No, don't underestimate how much money exists in the city of Toronto, and this is going to continue. This will continue forever. It has always happened and it always will. It's not just an age thing, it's just the reality. And so I have clients that are in their 40s that are getting money from the bank of mom and dad. So we saw it when people were younger, we're seeing it when people are older. I mean, there's also going to be the biggest shift in the history of mankind in terms of wealth will be from the baby boomers to the next generation. And so as these folks, you know, get older, some of them are passing away, we're seeing all this wealth transferred. So, case in point, I went to meet somebody yesterday. You know, parents have passed away. And an only child who's getting this massive, massive inheritance. She is at the age now where her kids, early 20s, They're not ready to buy yet, but that's going to go two generations back. I mean, that's wild to think that you're passing that through a generation who's already satisfied, right? Into the next generation. So the transfer of wealth is real. It's happened. It's happening. And I don't expect that to stop.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. Are you finding that the next generation is buying into the condo market right now? Or is there still that kind of perception that, you know, they want the big house and the white picket fence? And what does that look like?

David Fleming:

Well, I mean, I don't want to get too political here, but you know, in in Canada, we have a lot of deserve. People deserve. Everyone deserves to have a five-bed, five-bath, red brick, Georgian Tudor in Rosedale, right? And that's, you know, kind of what our society has sort of determined. But what I will say is that the younger generation, maybe not as much anymore, thinking that that's where they're going to end up. I think the reality has set in. But I think the younger generation are shunning the micro condos. And I don't know who wants to live in 293 square feet. And we said we wouldn't spend too much time talking about pre-construction and what's happened with developers shrinking the size of condos so that they can keep the absolute purchase price around the same because obviously investors have been financing the construction of Toronto for the last 15, 20 years, but they do not want those condos. And so I don't know who's going to live in those. They're going to be difficult to rent. And I think that the younger generation are seeing value in getting something that's, you know, 600 square feet. So they'll do that. And now prices have dropped to a point where they can. And I do see them getting into the market because you know what? I don't know. Was it ever cool to live with mom and dad? I think maybe it's less cool today than it was we reached this point where everyone was doing it, but now people are back to wanting out. So I think over the next couple of years, and again, we've got to get back to a consumer psychology and a consumer confidence that's a little bit on the upswing. But I do think we're going to see the condo market, at least on the resale side for slightly larger units, push as those folks want to get out of their parents' houses.

Christan Bosley:

100%. And I think based, you know, on your commentary earlier, when we talk about pre-constructions, we talk about the market, the economy, and everything that's happened. We have experienced a lot of cancellations in the pre-con market. And we have an influx of product on the resale side. So what I'm seeing is a much larger hit to the condo segment than the freehold segment throughout 2025. When you think about the five-year outlook into the future, how do you think that will impact the segment?

David Fleming:

Um, anyone watching this is gonna say you're full of it, but I think that we're gonna have another massive condo boom in five to six years. I we can't not. And and so look, I remember in 2021, and this is gonna be hard for people that are you know new to real estate and reading the headlines about the condo market to imagine, but I remember in 2021 you could take a $500,000 condo, list it for $399, and have 16 offers and sell it for $550. There was no product, there was nothing out there, there was no inventory and demand was through the roof. So now, obviously, with interest rates increasing and with prices coming down and with a lot of investors wanting to exit the space, we're seeing the complete opposite. Demand has been cut in half or more, and supply has doubled. But what's gonna happen in five to six years when we reach a point where nothing's been built, because that's what's happening right now. If you cannot pre-sell condos, which you can't right now because of the cost, then you cannot build condos. And so nothing is being sold. You've seen the stats from Urbanation, which are showing 30 new homes per month. And I'm wondering who's actually buying those. They're probably freehold to your point, Christan. But if nothing's gonna be built for the next five to six years, we're gonna see in you know 2030, 2031, a massive deficit in condos. And I think there's gonna be another boom.

Christan Bosley:

Yeah, I don't see how there can't be. Because the one thing you didn't surprisingly touch on was immigration. So when you look at how many people are coming into the city at this point and how little housing we have in production, it's quite astounding, actually.

David Fleming:

No, they have to live somewhere.

Christan Bosley:

They do. So a condo boom is on the horizon. What other indicators are you watching closely for 2026?

David Fleming:

Um, well, you kind of pigeonhole me as the stats nerd. So sales were at an all-time low. We don't have the final data yet for 2025, but my projections are around 62,000 sales. Now, to put this in context, you had 121,000 sales in 2021. That's the all-time high. In 2023 and 2024, you saw 67,000 and 66,000 sales, lowest of all time. And I say all-time, I go back to 2000. And why would you go before that? Because the city was half the size. But if we're seeing the lowest sales of all time last year, that's what I'm watching. I'm watching to see where it goes from here. Because I thought sales would increase. I mean, I wasn't exactly going out our limb. We were at an all-time low. Well, sure, sales have to increase from here. Now, the other thing I'm looking at is inventory. So people use different metrics, you know, months of inventory. I look at absorption rates, but we went five years without seeing 20,000 active listings in a month. And that's a big number to me, 20,000. And this is basically from 2019 through 2024. Not a single month with 20,000 plus active listings. In 2024, we saw seven months with 20,000 plus active listings. And then in 2025, we saw for the first time ever 30,000 in a month, and we saw that four times. So I'm watching inventory, I'm watching sales, and then from there, the ratio, the sales to new listings ratio, right? Your absorption rate, statistically speaking, anything less than 50% signals a buyer's market. Now, in reality, it probably doesn't because it's Toronto and because of the way that properties are bought and sold here. But we've seen absorption rates dip below 30%. In the condo market specifically, we've seen absorption rates at 24, 25%. I've never seen anything like that. And for context, I think the stat in January of 2021, the absorption rate in the 416 condo market was at 79%. In 2025, it was under 30%. So it completely shifts the dynamic from that ridiculous seller's market that I talked about earlier where you're listing condos, basic condos, and getting, you know, 12, 15 offers. We all saw it happen, and to now the point where stuff is just sitting on the market. So there's a lot of stats. I got really excited there because we're talking about statistics. There's a lot of stats that I'm really excited to look at next year. It's fun for me. At the beginning of every month, Market Watch comes out, I get to fill out my spreadsheet. I update my charts and my graphs, you know.

Christan Bosley:

And then I ask you to share them with me.

David Fleming:

Yes. Thank you. That's what always happens. It was like hard to imagine, but like I was the kid in grade nine that people are like, hey, did you do the homework? And I'd be like, Yeah, of course, yeah, you can have it.

Christan Bosley:

Yeah.

David Fleming:

Yeah.

Christan Bosley:

I appreciate that.

David Fleming:

Were you the one that was like asking for it?

Christan Bosley:

No, I sold my notebooks for a lot of money. Oh my God. I was the one that was super organized. The entrepreneur, of course. Of course. Yeah. Um, but listen, since you got so energized by that stats talk, I'm gonna dig in with one more question here. I think it's fair to say that a lot of economists, when they report in the media and to the industry at large, those are the key factors that they look at. Yeah. Right. So is there anything that you kind of dig into that would surprise people that they wouldn't think to look at?

David Fleming:

Well, I I've always made this argument, like the historical stats that people like to look at, debt to income ratio, and then the ratio of increase in real estate prices to increase in wages. And years ago, I started to say that doesn't matter. And people would say, What are you talking about? Those are the two most highly touted statistics. Okay, we touched earlier on this massive shift in generational wealth. So, what does debt to income ratio matter if people are giving their children money? And to be totally blunt, you know, poor people don't buy houses in Rosedale. So what does it matter if people that aren't buying have a ton of consumer debt? So I don't look at that statistic anymore. And then when you look at the increase in wage growth to the increase in real estate prices, I would say the same thing. What about that transfer of wealth that gives whether it's monthly payments to the kids or the down payment? And then I would look at simply the ratio of homeowners to renters, and I would say that that statistic is not negated, but it's certainly less important. So I mean, those are the two economic statistics that people love to look at. And the reason I bring them up is because you go back 15 years and people were saying, look at debt to income ratio in Canada, the real estate market's going to implode. Well, it didn't. And they say, well, look at the ratio of wage growth to real estate growth. That this can't continue. Well, it did. So you have to throw those two metrics out. Beyond that, I would look at the same statistics. Average home price is the be-all and end all. People like to use the home price index. It's a little bit smoother, less volatile. But is that going to see an uptick? Will we see a new trough in the month of January? Because post-peak in 2022, the trough was in Jan of 2024 and then it went up a little bit in 2025. But all the other year-over-year data by month has been down, essentially. So will we buck that trend? What's going to happen with sales? What's going to happen with inventory? Those are the things that I'm looking at into next year. And again, we touched on the absorption rate, Bank of Canada rate, of course. I think we're holding at 2.25. Some people think it's going to go up. Some people think we have another cut. But I don't think 25 basis points either way is going to move the needle.

Christan Bosley:

Is it fair to say, though, that the market has not imploded, not only because of the generational transfer of wealth, but also because of the bank stress test?

David Fleming:

Yeah, that's part of it. I mean, people complain when that came in, but listen, we have the safest banking system in the world. And if you look back to the 2008 financial crisis, and you know, some people, you know, are younger and they only know what that is because they watched the big short, right? Where you have like what, Ariana Grande sitting at poker table explaining mortgage-backed securities. No, it was somebody else, Selena Gomez. But point is that was a long time ago. And what ended up happening was Canada took note and they said, we need to strengthen our banking system. So there were so many things the CMHC did. Used to be able to buy with $0 down. There was something called 107% financing. They got rid of that. Used to be able to buy with 5% down, they got rid of that. 20% down for second properties, 20% for investment properties. They brought in, as you mentioned, the stress test, the increased CMHC premiums. There are so many things the Bank of Canada did to strengthen the banking system. That's part of the reason why the real estate market has remained resilient. Now the other part is simply demand. I think that there's a floor. I think that the people, maybe not watching this podcast, but dare I say mine, where I get more nasty comments on it, is people that just they they want to own and they can't. They can't less prices drop 90%. So they go to the YouTube comment section and they're like, you don't know what you're talking about. Prices are going to drop 90%. It just doesn't happen. It's just not going to. The Toronto market is resilient. There is a baseline for price, and that is where I think we are right now.

Christan Bosley:

Yeah. Couldn't agree more. So what is your bold prediction for 2026?

David Fleming:

The Blue Jays win the World Series.

Christan Bosley:

Oh, we could really use that.

David Fleming:

Yeah.

Christan Bosley:

Yeah.

David Fleming:

Yeah. One out. That was, it was, well, it was actually two, but they gave up a home run to the number nine hitter. I mean, you know, come on. That was our Joe Carter moment. Um, predictions for next year, I think we're gonna have a flat market. I don't see it going up. I just don't see it going down. I think it's going to be boring. It's boring because if it's not going down, and it's not going up, what's the media gonna talk about? What's blog TO gonna talk about?

Christan Bosley:

Here's a weird positive spin on that word.

David Fleming:

Okay.

Christan Bosley:

What about stable?

David Fleming:

Stable?

Christan Bosley:

Any any thoughts on like a little bit of stability?

David Fleming:

Well, that's the economic term would be stability. But I would say my Also positive.

Christan Bosley:

Like boring implies like, uh, we're all gonna sleep through it.

David Fleming:

No, that's my cynical side saying that yeah, it's gonna be boring because it's gonna be stable, it's gonna be flat, it's gonna be manageable, it's gonna be doable. But I think that market participants need to adjust and they haven't. So for example, we used to list properties low, set an offer date, and then we would get multiple offers and sell them. What's happening, and I always use the east side of Toronto as an example, agents haven't learned. And when I have listings in that area, I prepare my clients by tracking every offer night, and maybe 15% of offer nights are producing sales. Will agents learn from that? I don't think they will. I think we're gonna continue to do business the way we've always done it, even though it's not working. So my prediction for next year is to be positive. I hope, I hope people will start to adapt to this new market. And maybe, maybe they'll start to. But sellers need to understand it's not 2022. Buyers need to decide whether or not they want to get into the market or whether they want to hold out for some massive collapse that's not happening. But I think stability is a very good word for it.

Christan Bosley:

So that was actually my next question. Was the one brutally honest piece of advice that you would give to buyer and sellers today?

David Fleming:

Yeah.

Christan Bosley:

Um, would you go over and above what you just said? Anything further on that?

David Fleming:

For sellers, I would say you want to um, there's this thing, it hangs on a wall. Uh, it's got pages, it's called a calendar. I would want you to look at that and then try to identify the year because it's not 2022. And sellers are saying the wildest things. You know, we I talked to a builder earlier this year and I was rolling through the comparable sales, and he said, but you're missing the most important one. And then he gave me the address and I said, This sold 31 months ago. He was like, but I have the same, the same house. So there's a seller that has decided, decided that the market's down except, except for his house, right? So that's brutally honest for sellers. Get the calendar out. If you're tech savvy, okay, on the phone, you can do it. What year is it? And for buyers, I would just say, tune out the noise. Who cares what your colleague says? Who cares what your friend says? Who cares what your parents what about you? What about your partner? What about your kids? What are you doing? Why are you moving? Are you pregnant? Are you expanding the family? Do you want to get into that other school district? What are you doing and why? And remember that and take the found money that's on the ground because the market has dropped. You're picking up that discount. And I think that if we're in a flat market, a balanced market, a stable market, there's no reason not to make the move that you've been planning.

Christan Bosley:

Um, I'm really glad that you segued into a tech savvy calendar approach.

David Fleming:

Uh-huh.

Christan Bosley:

Did you know that I was-Cause I wasn't gonna be able to let that go. That calendar on the wall. Do you still have that in your home?

David Fleming:

No. But since you asked, yes, I was downloading MP3s on Napster in September of 1998. That's my claim to fame.

Christan Bosley:

Okay.

David Fleming:

True story. There are people that might not know what Napster is. That's what's scary.

Christan Bosley:

Or a blueberry? How long you carried that around for?

David Fleming:

It was a blackberry, but it was blue. Is that what they called it?

Christan Bosley:

Don't know.

David Fleming:

Yeah.

Christan Bosley:

All right, listen. Thank you so much for your insights. Yeah. This is my favorite part of the show where I get to ask you anything I want.

David Fleming:

Oh, I thought you were gonna say where you get to end it and go drink your coffee. Okay. What is it? No, no. Wait, you're asking me more questions?

Christan Bosley:

I'm asking you more questions, but they're just like things that you are not prepared for that I want to know.

David Fleming:

Go on.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. Are you ready?

David Fleming:

Sure.

Christan Bosley:

This one might be challenging for you.

David Fleming:

Okay.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. One lesson you've learned that you wish you knew earlier in your career.

David Fleming:

I mean, you're in this whole like be positive thing, but I mean, I just I I would say honestly.

Christan Bosley:

It's a mindset, David. It's a mindset.

David Fleming:

No, I mean, okay, so maybe I'm a cynic then, but I would say that like I came into this at 24 years old and everything was so positive and exciting. And it's very difficult when you're dealing in real estate. There's there's money, there's emotion, there's status and prestige, there's dreams, there's all that stuff. And what it makes for is, you know, people. People are the variable. People can be absolutely amazing. I have clients that make me so happy to get up in the morning. And then people can be tough. People can be fickle. And I'm not saying, you know, our clients, buyers, sellers, other agents, but it's tough out there. People are the biggest variable in this business. And real estate sometimes can bring out the absolute best in people and it can bring out the absolute worst: money, emotions, all of that stuff. So I certainly was not prepared for that. You gotta be an amateur psychologist to be in this business.

Christan Bosley:

Ah, okay. So that's the lesson you've learned. Well, how to engage with humans. Among others. Okay.

David Fleming:

How to engage with humans.

Christan Bosley:

Um, okay, great. What brings you joy?

David Fleming:

Um, I don't know. I think usually when I'm invited to a podcast um hosted by who might be one of the hardest working people in the business. Um, perfect. Can I move money now? Um exactly. No, I I I have fun doing this. No, what brings me joy, honestly. I like, I mean, you saw that I got all excited when we were talking about statistics. I I love writing my blog. I've been doing it since 2007. I like doing my podcasts and my videos. I like, I like dialogue, I like discussion, I like putting stuff out there. And that's when I started my blog in 07, it was just like an echo chamber, right? I was the only person there and no one read it. And then you start to see the engagement. And it's been almost 20 years, which is scary. Um, but yeah, I mean, I just I love to engage. I love to analyze, I love to discuss, I love talking all things real estate, even when people are negative and angry, which a lot of the city of Toronto is, but you know, it's a major world-class city. It's expensive, you know, it's tough.

Christan Bosley:

Um, okay, thank you. I love that about you. I was actually more wondering personally what brings you joy.

David Fleming:

Yeah, no, I knew that's why you were asking that question. And then I immediately choked a bit and then just segueed into something uh business like. What brings me joy? Oh gosh. Um, you know, just come into the office every morning, Christan. I gotta say.

Christan Bosley:

Nothing, hey.

David Fleming:

I'm gonna think about it.

Christan Bosley:

What about your cards? Mike. Every time I walk into your office, you have some sort of weird collector card lying around.

David Fleming:

Weird. Uh no, those are not weird at all. Uh yeah, well, I'm weird. I don't know that I'm weird. I think, well, let's say, for example, look, if someone had every GI Joe man made from 1982 to 1987, would you consider that person weird?

Christan Bosley:

Unique, maybe.

David Fleming:

Okay, well, okay, so G.I.

Christan Bosley:

Joe brings you joy.

David Fleming:

I know it's art. That's the thing. It's art. Yes, I own every G.I. Joe man from 1982 to 1987.

Christan Bosley:

Collecting, is it fair to say that collecting brings you joy?

David Fleming:

I name my son after a G.I. Joe man.

Christan Bosley:

Yes, I'm aware.

David Fleming:

I do collect. Christan knows this about me, yes, because she always comes into the office and I'm on eBay looking at stuff. And then I have to quickly switch to, you know, some sort of economic website. But yeah, no, I uh that does bring me joy. What do you do outside of real estate? I don't know. We're passionate about real estate, is what drives us. And then outside of real estate, you probably have to have the same emotional set. And yeah, for me, it is uh it is exactly that.

Christan Bosley:

Also, just to humanize you a little bit, you do have two wonderful children.

David Fleming:

Yes. No, I have them as well. Yes.

Christan Bosley:

One named after a G.I. Joe.

David Fleming:

I did name my son Duke after one of the leaders of G.I. Joe. And if I had another boy, maybe I'd call him Flint.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. Um, for all the reading that you do.

David Fleming:

Uh-huh. Yeah. What?

Christan Bosley:

I'm going to switch this question to a podcast. Do you have a favorite podcast that you listen to?

David Fleming:

Uh, I I I don't I don't have time to read or okay. I touched on Napster earlier. So I read a book. The last book I read was a year ago, but I read a book called How Music Got Free. And it was about basically the beginning of file sharing and Napster. That was fascinating because I lived through that and it was really depressing because now I'm reading what is essentially a history book about it. That was the last book I read. Um, podcasts, I you know what? I actually like there's the ongoing history of new music by Alan Cross, 102.1 The Edge. When I'm raking leaves or I'm doing yard work, I listen to that. I listen to now I'm really gonna date myself going at the whole 80s, 90s theme. There's two really good podcasts on the 80s and 90s, everything 80s, and then um there's a 90s podcast too. I don't know. Am I stuck in the past? Is that what you're trying to say?

Christan Bosley:

Do you listen to The Last Honest Realtor?

David Fleming:

No, no, absolutely not.

Christan Bosley:

You don't want to listen to your own podcast?

David Fleming:

No, but the other night my kids were on YouTube doing one of those uh dance things, and all of a sudden it came up and my son said, There's daddy, and my daughter clicked on it, and we watched it for about 15 seconds, and then my daughter clicked off, and my son goes, Thank God, because daddy was so boring. I mean, it's talking about real estate, so of course it was boring, but it was just so cute for him to say that.

Christan Bosley:

Yes. Well, that's kind of a kind one.

David Fleming:

Yeah.

Christan Bosley:

My children have some choice feedback for me on this podcast as well.

David Fleming:

Oh, la la.

Christan Bosley:

Yes.

David Fleming:

Yeah.

Christan Bosley:

Hey, last question. Sure. If you were to do a TED talk, what would it be on?

David Fleming:

Vintage hockey cards.

Christan Bosley:

Oh, something you collect.

David Fleming:

Well, you already you already mentioned that earlier. I mean, I I like you're supposed to do a TED talk on what you're passionate about and what you know a lot about. I know a lot about real estate, but that would be pretty boring. What other than real estate would I consider myself a subject matter expert in? Probably that.

Christan Bosley:

All right.

David Fleming:

Yeah.

Christan Bosley:

Listen, thank you so much for your time and for joining us today.

David Fleming:

Well, thanks for having me. This is really appreciate it. Hey, we should do it again next month.

Christan Bosley:

Should we?

David Fleming:

No.

Christan Bosley:

You come up with the topic.

David Fleming:

Okay.

Christan Bosley:

Okay. Thanks so much. Thanks for sharing your stories, your insights. Really appreciate it. And uh until next time, Christan Bosley with Like a Boss. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you enjoyed today's episode, be sure to subscribe, leave a review, and share it with someone who might find it valuable. We've got more conversations coming your way with incredible guests across design, finance, wellness, tech, and more. All through the lens of real estate. A special thank you to our set design sponsors, StageRight.

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Christan Bosley

Host
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David Fleming

Guest